Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.558198 2.728814 2.910917 3.120762 3.357193 3.616882 3.925841
2025-02-16 2.279045 2.506077 2.761472 3.073495 3.449312 3.894042 4.470736
2025-02-23 2.109461 2.367799 2.669136 3.053046 3.539147 4.149157 4.999275
2025-03-02 1.981342 2.258646 2.591163 3.028960 3.606231 4.367460 5.498486
2025-03-09 1.879349 2.169332 2.524993 3.006321 3.663511 4.569217 5.997674
2025-03-16 1.801634 2.102537 2.479038 3.001374 3.737926 4.796644 6.568814
2025-03-23 1.751324 2.065688 2.466805 3.037252 3.868594 5.117800 7.350790
2025-03-30 1.677969 1.993998 2.402856 2.994755 3.878456 5.251541 7.836188
2025-04-06 1.611641 1.927614 2.341360 2.949822 3.878171 5.365666 8.307019
2025-04-13 1.540561 1.851390 2.262043 2.873083 3.820794 5.375769 8.573579
2025-04-20 1.511908 1.830408 2.257080 2.903795 3.933523 5.689914 9.550875
2025-04-27 1.493165 1.821570 2.267921 2.957804 4.087778 6.099905 10.881071
2025-05-04 1.470081 1.806281 2.269503 2.998955 4.227165 6.510949 12.406747
2025-05-11 1.429049 1.764285 2.230434 2.973878 4.249764 6.696215 13.415860
2025-05-18 1.393186 1.728049 2.197877 2.956651 4.283969 6.910354 14.619735
2025-05-25 1.358304 1.691816 2.163532 2.934055 4.305747 7.101067 15.859249
2025-06-01 1.325978 1.658026 2.131247 2.912612 4.327236 7.294599 17.237090
2025-06-08 1.299995 1.632388 2.109998 2.907924 4.379601 7.568804 19.140388
2025-06-15 1.285274 1.622431 2.111907 2.941946 4.509958 8.057659 22.469872
2025-06-22 1.253211 1.586080 2.071804 2.901645 4.488396 8.159562 24.032269
2025-06-29 1.222224 1.550438 2.031552 2.859013 4.458590 8.235817 25.569448
2025-07-06 1.185520 1.505460 1.975415 2.786151 4.361289 8.116287 25.847350
2025-07-13 1.174286 1.497847 1.977321 2.815319 4.479084 8.614223 30.916366